"Prospects for a climate deal: There is still hope", by Kriton Arsenis

The new International Climate Change Conference started on Monday in Cancun, Mexico. However, after the failure in Copenhagen expectations are low.

The result will depend heavily on the stance of the two biggest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters, China and USA. The rejection of the Cap and Trade Bill in the US Congress, the recent election results and the loss of the Democratic Party's majority in the Senate, draw however a gloomy picture on USA's political willingness and ability to ratify an international agreement to reduce GHG emissions.

China, on the other hand, has a stagnant stance in international negotiations but takes mitigation measures unilaterally. Although China refused at Copenhagen last year to allow international agreement on the setting of CO2 reduction targets, it invests heavily on clean energy, and announces the approval of a national Climate Change law, introducing a number of mandatory requirements, regardless of the international efforts.

The only hope now is that the successful results in the COP 10 Biodiversity Conference in Nagoya will create a new dynamic in the negotiations under the UNFCCC.

The Conference aims at "revealing" the details and the structure of the 30 billion dollar fund pledged under the Copenhagen Accord, whose aim is to provide less developed countries with finance for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Furthermore, a revised mitigation and adaptation mechanism known as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation Plus (REDD+) will be negotiated. This is an effort to strengthen the role of biodiversity conservation in mitigating climate change and to create financial value for the carbon stored in forests, offering incentives for developing countries to reduce emissions from forested lands and invest in low-carbon paths to sustainable development.

The failure to conclude an agreement in either of these two issues would signal the possible collapse of the negotiations on a climate deal, leaving the final hope of mankind on unilateral measures taken by each country separately.

Whatever the expectations for Cancun may be, the Mexican Presidency will have the chance to turn the meeting into a success. The case of Japan that led the world to two very important agreements i.e. the Kyoto Protocol on climate change and last month's agreement on biodiversity in Nagoya sets a precedent that all countries hosting international environmental negotiations should study carefully. It shows that when a host country is proactive in proposing compromises which take everyone's views on board, and manages the negotiations in a determined and effective manner, miracles can happen.

Kriton Arsenis, MEP